DUBAI/WASHINGTON - Iran has signalled to Washington that it will respond to Israel’s attack on its Syrian embassy in a way that aims to avoid major escalation, and it will not act hastily, as Teheran presses demands including a Gaza truce, Iranian sources said.

Iran’s message to Washington was conveyed by Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian during a visit on April 7 to Oman, which has often acted as an intermediary between Teheran and Washington, the sources said.

A White House spokesperson declined to comment on any messages from Iran, but said the United States has communicated to Iran that it was not involved in the strike on the embassy.

Iran’s Foreign Ministry was not immediately available to comment. The Omani government did not immediately respond to e-mailed questions for comment, sent during the Muslim Eid al-Fitr holiday.

A source familiar with US intelligence was not aware of the message conveyed via Oman but said Iran has “been very clear” that its response to the attack on its Damascus embassy compound would be “controlled” and “non-escalatory”, and planned “to use regional proxies to launch a number of attacks on Israel”.

The diplomatic messaging points to a cautious approach by Iran as it weighs how to respond to the April 1 attack in a way that deters Israel from further such actions, but avoids a military escalation that could draw in the US.

Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, said on April 10 that Israel “must be punished, and it shall be”, saying it was tantamount to an attack on Iranian soil. Israel has not confirmed it was responsible, but the Pentagon has said it was.

The “imperative for Iran to punish this rogue regime” might have been avoided had the UN Security Council condemned the strike and brought the perpetrators to justice, Teheran’s mission to the United Nations said on April 11.

The attack, which killed a top Iranian general, marked an escalation in the violence that has spread through the region since the Gaza war began. Teheran has carefully avoided any direct role in the regional spillover, while backing groups that have waged attacks from Iraq, Yemen and Lebanon.

Iranian-backed Shi’ite Muslim militias have not attacked US troops in Syria and Iraq since early February.

One of the Iranian sources did not rule out the possibility that members of the Iran-backed Axis of Resistance could attack Israel at any moment – an option analysts have flagged as one possible means of reprisal.

The sources said Mr Amirabdollahian, in his Oman meetings, signalled Teheran’s willingness to de-escalate on condition that demands are met, including a permanent Gaza ceasefire – something Israel has ruled out as it seeks to crush Hamas.

The sources said Iran also sought the revival of talks over its disputed nuclear programme. Those talks have been stalled for nearly two years, with both sides accusing each other of making unreasonable demands.

Teheran also sought assurances that the US would not get involved in the event of a “controlled attack” on Israel by Iran – a demand the US rejected in a response delivered via Oman, the sources said.

Iran’s retaliatory strikes would be “non-escalatory” toward the US “as they don’t want the US to get involved”, said the source familiar with US intelligence, indicating Iran would not direct its proxy militias in Syria and Iraq to target US forces in those countries.

US President Joe Biden said on April 10 that Iran was threatening to launch a “significant attack in Israel”, and he had told Mr Netanyahu “our commitment to Israel security against these threats from Iran and its proxies is ironclad”.

The Pentagon on April 11 said the top US commander for the Middle East is in Israel for talks with the country’s military officials on security threats, chief among which is Iran’s expected retaliation.

General Erik Kurilla is in Israel “to meet key IDF (Israel Defence Forces) leadership... (and) discuss the current security threats in the region”, Pentagon spokesman, Major General Pat Ryder, told journalists, noting that the trip was moved up from a previously scheduled date “due to recent developments”.

On April 11, the US restricted the movements of its diplomats in Israel over security fears, the embassy said, as concerns mount over an Iranian retaliation.

“Out of an abundance of caution, US government employees and their family members are restricted from personal travel” outside the Tel Aviv, Jerusalem and Beersheeva areas “until further notice”, an embassy notice said. “The security environment remains complex and can change quickly depending on the political situation and recent events.”

Israel has said it would answer any attack from Iran.

“If Iran attacks from its territory, Israel will respond and attack in Iran,” Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz said in a post in Farsi and Hebrew on social media platform X on April 10.

‘Potential for miscalculation’

Russia, Germany and Britain on April 11 urged countries in the Middle East to show restraint.

German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock called on her Iranian counterpart Amirabdollahian to urge “maximum restraint” to avoid further escalation.

Russia’s Foreign Ministry told citizens they should not travel to the Middle East, especially to Israel, Lebanon and the Palestinian territories.

“Right now, it’s very important for everyone to maintain restraint so as not to lead to a complete destabilisation of the situation in the region, which doesn’t exactly shine with stability and predictability,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told a news briefing.

British foreign minister David Cameron also said he had made clear to Mr Amirabdollahian that Iran should not draw the Middle East into a wider conflict.

“I am deeply concerned about the potential for miscalculation leading to further violence,” Mr Cameron said on X.

US State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller said Secretary of State Antony Blinken has called counterparts including the Turkish, Chinese and Saudi foreign ministers “to make clear that escalation is not in anyone’s interest and that countries should urge Iran not to escalate”.

Iran’s ‘conundrum’

Experts on Iranian diplomacy said such tough demands from Teheran were typical of the hard-nosed approach it takes in negotiations. But the contacts nevertheless pointed to its interest in warding off major conflict.

Eurasia group analyst Gregory Brew said Ayatollah Khamenei was “trapped in a strategic conundrum”.

“Iran must respond to restore deterrence and maintain credibility among its Resistance Front allies. But, on the other hand, retaliating to restore deterrence would likely bring an even greater, and more destructive Israeli response, likely with US assistance,” he said.

The Iranian sources said the US had asked Iran to exercise restraint and allow space for diplomacy, cautioning Teheran that in the event of a direct attack, it will stand by Israel.

The Iranian sources said Iran believes Mr Netanyahu aims to draw Teheran into a war, therefore its retaliation could be a restrained one that avoids direct strikes on Israeli territory and may draw on Teheran’s allies.

The US Middle East envoy has called the foreign ministers of Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar and Iraq to ask them to deliver a message to Iran urging it to lower tensions with Israel, a source with knowledge of the situation said.

A source familiar with the issue said the US might well agree to revived nuclear talks if that could prevent a conflagration.

“If we are talking about talks and not (about) reaching an agreement, then it would seem to be well worth the price if the pay-off is minimising the risk of a regional escalation into which the US would be dragged,” said the source, who spoke on condition of anonymity.

Mr Ali Vaez from the International Crisis Group said Iran’s dilemma was “to figure out how to retaliate in a way that it saves face without losing its head”.

“Israel is much more unpredictable than the US,” he said. “The Supreme Leader is clearly concerned that rather than delivering the deterrent effect he might hope to achieve, an attack on Israel may only fuel a counter-escalation he might have hoped to avoid.” REUTERS, AFP