The year 2024 promises to be full of turmoil in American politics. A large majority of voters do not want another clash between Joe Biden and his predecessor Donald Trump in the November presidential election. At this point, it seems hard to escape. Yet not everything is set in stone. There is uncertainty about the health of 81-year-old Biden, and about the fate of Trump, the clear front-runner in the Republican primaries that begin on January 15, 2024, but who is indicted in four legal cases. Finally, there is uncertainty about the pivotal role of the Supreme Court in the former president's trajectory.
To repeat his 2020 achievement and avoid a decline in turnout, Biden needs to turn the upcoming election into a referendum on Trumpism. To get his revenge, Trump, for his part, is depicting an American apocalypse under Biden, whom he mocks as a senile president. The atmosphere in liberal circles is dire. For several weeks now, a series of analyses and polls have been reporting Trump's irresistible rise and detailing his repressive plans. The prospect is frightening, but the pessimism is excessive.
With the Republican primaries still to get underway, any projection 11 months in advance looks like a pointless exercise. By contrast, the current nature of Trumpism requires no caution. The classic political column, built on euphemisms and a concern for balance, is no longer relevant. The former president represents an existential danger to American democracy, the country's reputation, and traditional US alliances.
Strategically, Trump puts words before actions. From podium to podium, he launches assaults on federal institutions, just as his supporters assaulted the Capitol on January 6, 2021. He claims that he will be a dictator "on day one" of his term, with two objectives: "We're closing the border [with Mexico] and we're drilling, drilling, drilling [for oil and gas]." He holds up Chinese President Xi Jinping as a model of authority and touts his personal relationship with North Korea's Kim Jong-un. Finally, he speaks of the poisoning of American blood by immigration, borrowing language directly from White supremacists. Spirit of revenge, authoritarian promises, enemies within, obsession with purity.
Collective transgression
We shouldn't downplay these remarks by claiming that they are only provocations or by counting on the natural resistance of institutions. In the same way, we shouldn't get the question wrong, asking why a part of the Republican electorate – of uncertain size – remains loyal to Trump despite all this. Well, not "despite" – because of all this. There is an appetite for a strongman, an authoritarian inclination, that conservative media propaganda alone cannot explain.
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