Booster vaccines rollout ‘too slow’

Fears raised for vulnerable in winter, with millions waiting to receive third dose of a Covid jab

Patients sit in front of a portrait of Aneurin Bevan, the architect of the NHS, after receiving their booster vaccines in Cwmbran, Wales
Patients sit in front of a portrait of Aneurin Bevan, the architect of the NHS, after receiving their booster vaccines in Cwmbran, Wales, this month Credit: Huw Fairclough/Getty Images Europe

The Government's booster vaccines programme is moving too slowly to protect the most vulnerable, experts warned as figures show that fewer than half of those eligible have received the jab.

Estimates seen by The Telegraph show that 22 million people will be ready for their third dose by mid-December, yet at current rates the programme to vaccinate those most at risk will not be completed until the end of January.

On Monday, Downing Street promised to "step up communications" as it emerged that only 3.7 million of the 8.5 million at-risk people who had a second jab at least six months ago have had their third dose. It means 4.8 million are in danger from waning immunity.

Currently, people eligible for a third dose must wait until they are contacted by the NHS before booking a jab.

John Roberts, of the respected Covid-19 Actuaries Response Group, who calculated the figures based on the latest NHS England booster figures and historical vaccination data, said: "At the start of the booster campaign, the Secretary of State for Health and Social Care stated that the aim was to protect the most vulnerable from Covid-19 as we head into the autumn and winter months.

"But at the current rate, it's likely to be towards the end of January before the approximately 22 million that fall into the most vulnerable groups receive the booster.

"With case numbers very high and still rising, and admissions to hospital also rising again, it's clear that accelerating the booster rollout is vital to reduce the pressure on health services and minimise Covid-related deaths this autumn and winter."

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Experts blamed the slowdown on the growing complexity of the Covid vaccination programme, which is now dealing with schoolchildren, extra doses for immunocompromised people and rolling out the flu jab.

At the peak of England's vaccine rollout, more than 500,000 doses were being given a day – but just 99,000 booster shots were reported in England on Monday, and the current daily average for other jabs has fallen to around 50,000.

The booster programme is working its way through nine priority groups, starting with the over-80s, care home residents, frontline health workers and the clinically vulnerable.

The Covid-19 Actuaries Response Group warned that there are two million people becoming eligible each week but just 1.3 million weekly jabs being carried out, meaning the backlog is growing. The gap between a second jab and booster is concerning, because studies have shown that immunity continues to drop over time.

Data from Public Health England (PHE) found that AstraZeneca effectiveness against symptomatic Covid fell from 67 per cent to 47 per cent after 20 weeks, while protection from severe disease and hospital admissions dropped from 95 per cent to 77 per cent over the same period.

Britain recorded 49,156 new Covid cases on Monday – a rise of 16 per cent in a week – meaning infections are rising as immunity in the most vulnerable is falling.

Prof Andrew Hayward, an epidemiologist and government adviser of University College London,  said the situation was "concerning" and there was "huge potential for the NHS to come under a lot of pressure".

He said waning immunity was "probably part of" the reason infections are currently high, adding here was "some evidence" that protection against infection is beginning to wear off and "probably some evidence" that protection against severe disease is waning to a lesser extent.

There were more than 1,400 Covid-related deaths among the over-80s in the past four weeks. Of the 2.2 million people over 80 who are eligible for a booster, fewer than 1.2 million have had the jab.

Prof Hayward added: "We need to get the vaccination rates up and we need to be prepared potentially to think about other measures if things do get out of control."

Downing Street said the NHS was doing "everything possible" to contact people eligible for a third jab or booster shot.

The Prime Minister's official spokesman said: "We will continue to step up our communications to those who are eligible so they can come forward and get the protection they need."

Prof Adam Finn, professor of paediatrics at the University of Bristol, said the rollout was growing more complex.

"The programme has got much more complicated than it was before," he said. "Previously, it was a straightforward matter of opening large centres and getting people in by age groups.

"Now we have multiple different groups being offered vaccines. They are really difficult patients to identify and to sculpt the programme. High risk groups are very difficult to reach."

NHS England said its calculations showed that six million people were currently eligible for a booster and 4.2 million had already been invited for the jab. It said it did not recognise Roberts' figures and its own were based on NHS Digital records.

An NHS spokesman said: "Actually, the NHS has delivered more than three million boosters in less than a month and at a faster rate than in December 2020.

"While the NHS continues to deliver first and second doses as well as rolling out the vaccine in schools, millions of people are being invited at least six months on from their second jab which is in line with independent guidance." 

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