Ministers approved plans to reopen the border to foreign travellers yesterday in defiance of official warnings that the move posed a “clear public health risk”.
From Monday, millions of fully vaccinated passengers from the US and EU — which includes countries on the amber list — will be able to enter England, Scotland and Wales without spending up to ten days in quarantine. The change is widely expected to be expanded to other countries in the coming months.
However, senior officials warned the cabinet that allowing fully vaccinated Europeans to enter freely could raise the risk of lower quality vaccines undermining Britain’s immunity against the coronavirus. Ministers on the Covid-19 operations (Covid-O) committee were told the move posed a “clear public health risk”.
Sajid Javid, the health secretary, is understood to have been told of the risk posed by Europeans who had been given jabs not approved for use in Britain, such as the Chinese Sinopharm vaccine used in Hungary. There are also concerns that paper vaccine certificates issued in the United States could be falsified.
Ministers decided to press ahead with the plans at a meeting of the Covid-O committee yesterday.
Advertisement
Javid hailed the move as a “boost to the economy” and “safe from a public health point of view” despite the clear warnings from scientific advisers.
It was also announced that international cruises could resume after more than a year. They will be able to start and finish in English ports — calling at amber destinations in between — without requiring vaccinated passengers to quarantine on their return.
More changes are expected next week, including confirmation that restrictions imposed on people travelling to the UK from France will be dropped.
Dominic Raab, the foreign secretary, said the government “cannot guarantee’’ that US and EU travellers will not try to show fake vaccination certificates. He told Today on Radio 4: “I think it is highly unlikely. The point here is that, with both the European countries and the US, we are talking about countries with whom we have not just an intuitive level of high trust, we have active co-operation, so we know that we can straighten out any discrepancies we might come across pretty quickly.’’
Speaking to Sky News, he rejected the idea that rapid testing alone could be used to release new arrivals from quarantine as the race towards nationwide double vaccination continues. He said that two doses of the jab could more reliably offer the “level of reassurance” sought by the government.
Advertisement
Ministers are considering placing Spain on a new “amber watchlist”, putting tourists on notice that the country risks being relegated to the red list if cases rise further.
The moves came as a week-long fall in new Covid-19 cases ended yesterday, with Javid telling the public not to become too optimistic about the course of the pandemic. Some 27,734 positive cases were reported in the UK yesterday, an 18 per cent rise on Tuesday and ending what had been a steep decline from 46,558 on Tuesday last week.
The figures could signal a rise in infections driven by the end of limits on social contact on July 19, experts said, though they will want several more days of data to be sure. The seven-day rolling average is still falling, to 30,494.
Javid admitted that “no one really knows” whether infections will rise or fall over the rest of the summer, as scientists await the impact of the end of all restrictions last week.
Since July 19 fully vaccinated UK residents have been allowed to travel to and from countries on the government’s amber list without isolating on their return.
Advertisement
Under the plan set out yesterday, airlines will be expected to verify vaccine status at check-in. The change initially only applied to England, although the Scottish government followed several hours later. Wales criticised the decision but agreed to replicate the rules.
Northern Ireland had yet to do the same last night.
The US has resisted pressure to strike a reciprocal deal, maintaining the executive order signed by President Trump in March last year that banned entry to all UK and EU citizens. Grant Shapps, the transport secretary, raised hopes that changes would be made soon, adding: “We do expect that in time they will release that executive order.”
The health secretary insisted that Britain’s “vaccine wall of defence” was strong enough to withstand any influx of EU and US travellers. However, The Times understands that there are serious concerns in his department about the rigour of public health regimes in both jurisdictions.
More than a million people in Hungary have been issued with a valid EU travel pass despite receiving the Sinopharm vaccine. Arrivals with the jab will still be expected to quarantine, but there are concerns that airlines may fail to check the specific vaccine listed on the travel pass.
Advertisement
Mike Tildesley, professor of infectious disease modelling at the University of Warwick, told Times Radio: “If people are coming from countries that have similar levels of infection to ours . . . then it’s probably a practical decision that has to be made to try to support the tourist industry.”
Professor Neil Ferguson, the epidemiologist whose modelling influenced the government’s decision to lock down in March last year, has been criticised by a leading statistician for his “overconfident” prediction that infection rates were likely to rise to 100,000 a day by the end of this month and for subsequently saying he was “positive” the pandemic would end by autumn.
Nate Silver, founder of the American polling website FiveThirtyEight, said that multiple variables made the outcome uncertain. He wrote on Twitter: “I don’t care that the prediction is wrong . . . it’s that he’s consistently so overconfident.”
